US Dollar to Czech Koruna AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
5.74%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
5.78%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
5.93%
increased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 19, 1993 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 167 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0015 | 11.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0354 | 24.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9605 | 604.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0132 | 1.16 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
167 days
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