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V-Lab

US Dollar to Czech Koruna GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

5.01%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

5.06%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

5.25%

increased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 01:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Czech Koruna GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 19, 1993 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 170 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0014
11.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0364
16.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9609
607.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0027
-0.99

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

170 days