V-Lab
US Dollar to Czech Koruna GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
5.66%
increased by 0.11%
1 Week
5.70%
increased by 0.15%
1 Month
5.86%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 19, 1993 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 167 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0015 | 11.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0363 | 16.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9609 | 607.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0028 | -1.01 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
167 days
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