V-Lab
US Dollar to Czech Koruna GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
6.46%
increased by 0.21%
1 Week
6.48%
increased by 0.23%
1 Month
6.56%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 19, 1993 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 306 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.93 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4136 | 7.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0224 | 76.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9977 | 3,550.67*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.9254 | 89.71*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
306 days
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