V-Lab
US Dollar to Czech Koruna GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
5.94%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
5.97%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
6.07%
decreased by 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 19, 1993 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 309 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.93 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4120 | 7.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0224 | 76.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9978 | 3,589.05*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.9280 | 90.38*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
309 days
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