V-Lab
Chilean Peso GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
12.36%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
12.37%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Month
12.42%
decreased by 0.32%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1992 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 406 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.32 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9556 | 7.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0296 | 108.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9983 | 5,310.07*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.3202 | 489.49*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
406 days
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