V-Lab
Chilean Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
8.74%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
8.77%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
8.87%
decreased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 354 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 31% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0015 | 14.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0548 | 17.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9496 | 572.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0129 | -2.56** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
354 days
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