V-Lab
Chilean Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
9.44%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
9.47%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
9.55%
decreased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 01:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1992 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 358 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~358 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0015 | 3.69*** |
| αARCH | 0.0547 | 4.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9498 | 143.56*** |
| γleverage | -0.0128 | -0.64 |
0.998
Persistence358d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0015 | 3.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0547 | 4.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9498 | 143.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0128 | -0.64 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
358 days
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