V-Lab
Chilean Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
7.40%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
7.44%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
7.58%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1992 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 348 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 31% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0015 | 14.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0548 | 17.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9496 | 572.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0129 | -2.56** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
348 days
Other Chilean Peso Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Currencies