V-Lab
Chilean Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
7.85%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
7.89%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
8.01%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1992 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 348 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~348 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0015 | 3.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.0547 | 4.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9497 | 143.35*** |
| γleverage | -0.0128 | -0.64 |
0.998
Persistence348d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0015 | 3.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0547 | 4.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9497 | 143.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0128 | -0.64 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
348 days
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