V-Lab
Chilean Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
10.75%
increased by 0.20%
1 Week
10.77%
increased by 0.22%
1 Month
10.82%
increased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 08:35 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1992 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 364 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~364 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0015 | 3.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.0546 | 4.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9499 | 143.94*** |
| γleverage | -0.0128 | -0.64 |
0.998
Persistence364d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0015 | 3.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0546 | 4.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9499 | 143.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0128 | -0.64 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
364 days
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