V-Lab
Chilean Peso Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
8.89%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
9.05%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
9.51%
increased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1992 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7785 | 6.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0746 | 7.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8785 | 55.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0343 | 0.59 |
| γ2 | 0.0134 | 0.14 |
| γ3 | -0.1503 | -2.33** |
| γ4 | 0.1997 | 4.21*** |
| γ5 | -0.1767 | -4.32*** |
| γ6 | 0.1187 | 3.75*** |
| γ7 | -0.0301 | -0.78 |
| γ8 | 0.0001 | 0.00 |
| γ9 | -0.0468 | -1.93* |
| γ10 | 0.0532 | 3.55*** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
Other Chilean Peso Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Currencies