V-Lab
Chilean Peso Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
7.70%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
7.96%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
8.70%
increased by 0.85%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1992 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7892 | 6.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0736 | 7.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8807 | 57.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0399 | 0.67 |
| γ2 | 0.0042 | 0.04 |
| γ3 | -0.1444 | -2.20** |
| γ4 | 0.1963 | 4.06*** |
| γ5 | -0.1751 | -4.19*** |
| γ6 | 0.1178 | 3.69*** |
| γ7 | -0.0290 | -0.74 |
| γ8 | -0.0017 | -0.05 |
| γ9 | -0.0455 | -1.83* |
| γ10 | 0.0532 | 3.46*** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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