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V-Lab

Philippine Peso GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

5.94%

increased by 0.24%

1 Week

5.95%

increased by 0.25%

1 Month

5.99%

increased by 0.29%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Philippine Peso GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 31, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 300 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~300 daysv = 2.70 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2429
1.41
αARCH0.0333
22.55***
βGARCH0.9977
718.80***
νDF2.7047
28.77***

0.998

Persistence

300d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2429
1.41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0333
22.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9977
718.80***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.7047
28.77***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

300 days