V-Lab
Philippine Peso GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
5.94%
1 Week
5.95%
1 Month
5.99%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 300 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2429 | 1.41 |
| αARCH | 0.0333 | 22.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9977 | 718.80*** |
| νDF | 2.7047 | 28.77*** |
0.998
Persistence300d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2429 | 1.41 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0333 | 22.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9977 | 718.80*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7047 | 28.77*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
300 days
Other Philippine Peso Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Currencies