V-Lab
Philippine Peso GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
5.50%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
5.51%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
5.56%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2001 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 295 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~295 daysv = 2.71 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2383 | 1.39 |
| αARCH | 0.0333 | 22.53*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9977 | 693.30*** |
| νDF | 2.7127 | 27.84*** |
0.998
Persistence295d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2383 | 1.39 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0333 | 22.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9977 | 693.30*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7127 | 27.84*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
295 days
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