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Philippine Peso GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

5.50%

increased by 0.02%

1 Week

5.51%

increased by 0.03%

1 Month

5.56%

increased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

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graph of Philippine Peso GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 31, 2001 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 295 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~295 daysv = 2.71 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2383
1.39
αARCH0.0333
22.53***
βGARCH0.9977
693.30***
νDF2.7127
27.84***

0.998

Persistence

295d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2383
1.39
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0333
22.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9977
693.30***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.7127
27.84***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

295 days