V-Lab
Philippine Peso GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
5.66%
increased by 0.11%
1 Week
5.67%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
5.72%
increased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2001 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 302 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2454 | 5.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0333 | 90.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9977 | 2,908.76*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6994 | 116.91*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
302 days
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