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V-Lab

Philippine Peso MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

4.17%

increased by 0.23%

1 Week

4.38%

increased by 0.44%

1 Month

4.94%

increased by 1.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Philippine Peso MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 6, 1991 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow56
αARCH0.1310
4.53***
βGARCH0.7775
23.91***
γleverage-0.0451
-1.49
λ₁tau intercept0.0205
1.24
λ₂forecast adj.0.6993
2.66***
λ₃tau persistence0.1117
0.30

0.886

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1310
4.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7775
23.91***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0451
-1.49
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0205
1.24
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.6993
2.66***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1117
0.30

Persistence:

0.886

Half-life:

6 days