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V-Lab

Philippine Peso MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

3.77%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

4.07%

increased by 0.21%

1 Month

4.65%

increased by 0.79%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Philippine Peso MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 6, 1991 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 53% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1316
21.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7776
68.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0456
-5.62***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0205
0.63
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.7008
0.80
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1099
0.10

Persistence:

0.886

Half-life:

6 days