V-Lab
Philippine Peso MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
3.77%
1 Week
4.07%
1 Month
4.65%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 6, 1991 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 53% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1316 | 21.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7776 | 68.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0456 | -5.62*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0205 | 0.63 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7008 | 0.80 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1099 | 0.10 |
Persistence:
0.886
Half-life:
6 days
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