V-Lab
Brazilian Real AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
8.99%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
9.16%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
9.76%
increased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 03:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.17) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0071 | 3.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.0874 | 13.86*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9015 | 163.52*** |
| γleverage | -0.1727 | -3.30*** |
0.989
Persistence62d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0071 | 3.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0874 | 13.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9015 | 163.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1727 | -3.30*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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