Brazilian Real AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
9.15%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
9.32%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
9.91%
increased by 0.46%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.17) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0071 | 15.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0881 | 55.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9009 | 648.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1724 | -13.17*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
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