V-Lab
Singapore Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
3.32%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
3.35%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
3.47%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1025 | 3.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0355 | 59.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9930 | 476.50*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.8252 | 28.54*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
99 days
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