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V-Lab

Singapore Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

2.97%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

3.01%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

3.15%

increased by 0.13%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC

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graph of Singapore Dollar GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 100 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~100 daysv = 2.82 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1022
0.86
αARCH0.0354
14.95***
βGARCH0.9931
120.45***
νDF2.8248
7.19***

0.993

Persistence

100d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1022
0.86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0354
14.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9931
120.45***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.8248
7.19***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

100 days