V-Lab
Singapore Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
3.54%
increased by 0.15%
1 Week
3.56%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
3.66%
increased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~99 daysv = 2.83 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1024 | 0.85 |
| αARCH | 0.0355 | 14.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9930 | 119.00*** |
| νDF | 2.8251 | 7.13*** |
0.993
Persistence99d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1024 | 0.85 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0355 | 14.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9930 | 119.00*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.8251 | 7.13*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
99 days
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