V-Lab
Israeli Shekel Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
8.03%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
8.02%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Month
7.98%
decreased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 1991 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2357 | 5.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0669 | 7.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8957 | 72.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0117 | 0.36 |
| γ2 | 0.0062 | 0.12 |
| γ3 | -0.0584 | -1.45 |
| γ4 | 0.1184 | 3.82*** |
| γ5 | -0.1690 | -6.05*** |
| γ6 | 0.1366 | 4.32*** |
| γ7 | -0.0496 | -1.57 |
| γ8 | 0.0124 | 0.45 |
| γ9 | 0.0084 | 0.31 |
| γ10 | -0.0743 | -1.84* |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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