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V-Lab

Thai Baht Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

7.16%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Week

7.34%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

7.98%

increased by 0.68%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Thai Baht SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 14, 1997 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 50 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4040
6.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0852
10.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9010
109.49***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0033
7.69***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days