V-Lab
Thai Baht Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
7.16%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
7.34%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
7.98%
increased by 0.68%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 1997 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 50 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4040 | 6.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0852 | 10.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9010 | 109.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0033 | 7.69*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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