Danish Krone GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
4.33%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
4.35%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
4.42%
increased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 02:53 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 485 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~485 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0004 | 2.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.0293 | 4.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9729 | 340.77*** |
| γleverage | -0.0073 | -0.77 |
0.999
Persistence485d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0004 | 2.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0293 | 4.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9729 | 340.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0073 | -0.77 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
485 days
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