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V-Lab

Polish Zloty GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

7.15%

increased by 1.76%

1 Week

9.11%

increased by 3.72%

1 Month

12.09%

increased by 6.70%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Polish Zloty GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 1, 1993 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8075
0.01
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.6475
0.02
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8825
0.07
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.9990
0.01

Persistence:

0.882

Half-life:

6 days