V-Lab
Polish Zloty GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
8.03%
1 Week
8.06%
1 Month
8.18%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 1993 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 243 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.67 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5885 | 1.24 |
| αARCH | 0.0226 | 19.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9971 | 505.91*** |
| νDF | 2.6706 | 18.23*** |
0.997
Persistence243d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5885 | 1.24 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0226 | 19.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9971 | 505.91*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6706 | 18.23*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
243 days
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