Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Polish Zloty GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

8.03%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

8.06%

increased by 0.00%

1 Month

8.18%

increased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Polish Zloty GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 1, 1993 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 243 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.67 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~243 daysv = 2.67 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5885
1.24
αARCH0.0226
19.75***
βGARCH0.9971
505.91***
νDF2.6706
18.23***

0.997

Persistence

243d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5885
1.24
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0226
19.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9971
505.91***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6706
18.23***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

243 days