V-Lab
Czech Koruna Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
4.81%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
4.86%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
5.05%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 19, 1993 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 141 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1772 | 8.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0350 | 5.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9601 | 143.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 1.27 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
141 days
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