US Dollar to Japanese Yen Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026
1 Day
5.13%
increased by 0.29%
1 Week
5.18%
increased by 0.34%
1 Month
5.36%
increased by 0.52%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 07:23 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 55 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3951 | 12.59*** |
| αARCH | 0.0403 | 8.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9472 | 157.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0004 | 4.88*** |
0.988
Persistence55d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3951 | 12.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0403 | 8.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9472 | 157.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0004 | 4.88*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
55 days
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