US Dollar to Brazilian Real Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
13.11%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
13.29%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
13.96%
increased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 08:07 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1992 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 908 trading days (~3.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~908 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0153 | 1.86* |
| αARCH | 0.0878 | 10.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9114 | 129.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.9045 | 1.45 |
| γ2 | -1.6765 | -1.37 |
| γ3 | 1.3297 | 1.13 |
| γ4 | -0.7149 | -0.89 |
| γ5 | 0.0649 | 0.26 |
| γ6 | 0.1817 | 2.33** |
| γ7 | -0.1310 | -1.86* |
| γ8 | 0.0414 | 0.68 |
| γ9 | -0.0054 | -0.08 |
| γ10 | 0.0113 | 0.22 |
0.999
Persistence908d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0153 | 1.86* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0878 | 10.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9114 | 129.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.9045 | 1.45 |
| γ2 | -1.6765 | -1.37 |
| γ3 | 1.3297 | 1.13 |
| γ4 | -0.7149 | -0.89 |
| γ5 | 0.0649 | 0.26 |
| γ6 | 0.1817 | 2.33** |
| γ7 | -0.1310 | -1.86* |
| γ8 | 0.0414 | 0.68 |
| γ9 | -0.0054 | -0.08 |
| γ10 | 0.0113 | 0.22 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
908 days
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