V-Lab
US Dollar to Brazilian Real Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
8.78%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
9.01%
increased by 0.14%
1 Month
9.85%
increased by 0.98%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1992 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 750 trading days (~3.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~750 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2057 | 2.32** |
| αARCH | 0.0876 | 11.01*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9114 | 129.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.9338 | 1.48 |
| γ2 | -1.7053 | -1.38 |
| γ3 | 1.3208 | 1.12 |
| γ4 | -0.7005 | -0.88 |
| γ5 | 0.0584 | 0.23 |
| γ6 | 0.1808 | 2.36** |
| γ7 | -0.1308 | -1.91* |
| γ8 | 0.0494 | 0.83 |
| γ9 | -0.0245 | -0.39 |
| γ10 | 0.0307 | 0.64 |
0.999
Persistence750d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2057 | 2.32** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0876 | 11.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9114 | 129.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.9338 | 1.48 |
| γ2 | -1.7053 | -1.38 |
| γ3 | 1.3208 | 1.12 |
| γ4 | -0.7005 | -0.88 |
| γ5 | 0.0584 | 0.23 |
| γ6 | 0.1808 | 2.36** |
| γ7 | -0.1308 | -1.91* |
| γ8 | 0.0494 | 0.83 |
| γ9 | -0.0245 | -0.39 |
| γ10 | 0.0307 | 0.64 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
750 days
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