US Dollar to Brazilian Real Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026
1 Day
21.38%
decreased by 0.92%
1 Week
21.50%
decreased by 0.80%
1 Month
21.99%
decreased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 07:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1992 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 774 trading days (~3.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~774 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0103 | 1.86* |
| αARCH | 0.0863 | 10.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9128 | 130.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.8843 | 1.40 |
| γ2 | -1.6351 | -1.31 |
| γ3 | 1.2874 | 1.07 |
| γ4 | -0.6771 | -0.83 |
| γ5 | 0.0412 | 0.16 |
| γ6 | 0.1904 | 2.38** |
| γ7 | -0.1332 | -1.85* |
| γ8 | 0.0380 | 0.61 |
| γ9 | 0.0114 | 0.17 |
| γ10 | -0.0106 | -0.19 |
0.999
Persistence774d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0103 | 1.86* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0863 | 10.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9128 | 130.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.8843 | 1.40 |
| γ2 | -1.6351 | -1.31 |
| γ3 | 1.2874 | 1.07 |
| γ4 | -0.6771 | -0.83 |
| γ5 | 0.0412 | 0.16 |
| γ6 | 0.1904 | 2.38** |
| γ7 | -0.1332 | -1.85* |
| γ8 | 0.0380 | 0.61 |
| γ9 | 0.0114 | 0.17 |
| γ10 | -0.0106 | -0.19 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
774 days
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