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US Dollar to Brazilian Real Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

8.29%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Week

8.50%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

9.29%

increased by 0.73%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Brazilian Real S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1992 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1199 trading days (~4.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~1199 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2325
2.39**
αARCH0.0885
10.66***
βGARCH0.9109
124.25***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.9321
1.43
γ2-1.7116
-1.34
γ31.3334
1.09
γ4-0.7080
-0.85
γ50.0649
0.25
γ60.1712
2.23**
γ7-0.1196
-1.74*
γ80.0411
0.67
γ9-0.0209
-0.31
γ100.0311
0.60

0.999

Persistence

1199d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2325
2.39**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0885
10.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9109
124.25***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.9321
1.43
γ2-1.7116
-1.34
γ31.3334
1.09
γ4-0.7080
-0.85
γ50.0649
0.25
γ60.1712
2.23**
γ7-0.1196
-1.74*
γ80.0411
0.67
γ9-0.0209
-0.31
γ100.0311
0.60

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1199 days