V-Lab
US Dollar to Brazilian Real Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
8.29%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
8.50%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
9.29%
increased by 0.73%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1992 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1199 trading days (~4.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~1199 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2325 | 2.39** |
| αARCH | 0.0885 | 10.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9109 | 124.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.9321 | 1.43 |
| γ2 | -1.7116 | -1.34 |
| γ3 | 1.3334 | 1.09 |
| γ4 | -0.7080 | -0.85 |
| γ5 | 0.0649 | 0.25 |
| γ6 | 0.1712 | 2.23** |
| γ7 | -0.1196 | -1.74* |
| γ8 | 0.0411 | 0.67 |
| γ9 | -0.0209 | -0.31 |
| γ10 | 0.0311 | 0.60 |
0.999
Persistence1199d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2325 | 2.39** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0885 | 10.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9109 | 124.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.9321 | 1.43 |
| γ2 | -1.7116 | -1.34 |
| γ3 | 1.3334 | 1.09 |
| γ4 | -0.7080 | -0.85 |
| γ5 | 0.0649 | 0.25 |
| γ6 | 0.1712 | 2.23** |
| γ7 | -0.1196 | -1.74* |
| γ8 | 0.0411 | 0.67 |
| γ9 | -0.0209 | -0.31 |
| γ10 | 0.0311 | 0.60 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1199 days
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