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US Dollar to Brazilian Real Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026

1 Day

21.38%

decreased by 0.92%

1 Week

21.50%

decreased by 0.80%

1 Month

21.99%

decreased by 0.31%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 07:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/12/2024

to

11/12/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Brazilian Real S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1992 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 774 trading days (~3.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~774 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0103
1.86*
αARCH0.0863
10.94***
βGARCH0.9128
130.80***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.8843
1.40
γ2-1.6351
-1.31
γ31.2874
1.07
γ4-0.6771
-0.83
γ50.0412
0.16
γ60.1904
2.38**
γ7-0.1332
-1.85*
γ80.0380
0.61
γ90.0114
0.17
γ10-0.0106
-0.19

0.999

Persistence

774d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0103
1.86*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0863
10.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9128
130.80***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.8843
1.40
γ2-1.6351
-1.31
γ31.2874
1.07
γ4-0.6771
-0.83
γ50.0412
0.16
γ60.1904
2.38**
γ7-0.1332
-1.85*
γ80.0380
0.61
γ90.0114
0.17
γ10-0.0106
-0.19

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

774 days