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US Dollar to Brazilian Real Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

8.78%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

9.01%

increased by 0.14%

1 Month

9.85%

increased by 0.98%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Brazilian Real S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1992 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 750 trading days (~3.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~750 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2057
2.32**
αARCH0.0876
11.01***
βGARCH0.9114
129.89***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.9338
1.48
γ2-1.7053
-1.38
γ31.3208
1.12
γ4-0.7005
-0.88
γ50.0584
0.23
γ60.1808
2.36**
γ7-0.1308
-1.91*
γ80.0494
0.83
γ9-0.0245
-0.39
γ100.0307
0.64

0.999

Persistence

750d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2057
2.32**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0876
11.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9114
129.89***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.9338
1.48
γ2-1.7053
-1.38
γ31.3208
1.12
γ4-0.7005
-0.88
γ50.0584
0.23
γ60.1808
2.36**
γ7-0.1308
-1.91*
γ80.0494
0.83
γ9-0.0245
-0.39
γ100.0307
0.64

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

750 days