V-Lab
US Dollar to Japanese Yen Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
8.67%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
8.61%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
8.41%
decreased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2579 | 6.57*** |
| αARCH | 0.0408 | 7.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9367 | 113.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0109 | 0.53 |
| γ2 | -0.0287 | -0.90 |
| γ3 | 0.0229 | 1.01 |
| γ4 | 0.0204 | 0.95 |
| γ5 | -0.0694 | -3.15*** |
| γ6 | 0.0833 | 4.06*** |
| γ7 | -0.0715 | -3.29*** |
| γ8 | 0.0768 | 3.28*** |
| γ9 | -0.0974 | -2.65*** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2579 | 6.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0408 | 7.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9367 | 113.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0109 | 0.53 |
| γ2 | -0.0287 | -0.90 |
| γ3 | 0.0229 | 1.01 |
| γ4 | 0.0204 | 0.95 |
| γ5 | -0.0694 | -3.15*** |
| γ6 | 0.0833 | 4.06*** |
| γ7 | -0.0715 | -3.29*** |
| γ8 | 0.0768 | 3.28*** |
| γ9 | -0.0974 | -2.65*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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