V-Lab
Croatian Kuna Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
4.42%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
4.44%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
4.50%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 189 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4046 | 8.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0247 | 7.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9716 | 264.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0005 | 3.70*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
189 days
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