Croatian Kuna Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
4.14%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
4.16%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
4.23%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 08:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 190 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~190 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4108 | 8.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.0246 | 7.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9717 | 265.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0005 | 3.79*** |
0.996
Persistence190d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4108 | 8.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0246 | 7.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9717 | 265.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0005 | 3.79*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
190 days
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