V-Lab
US Dollar to Russian Ruble MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
13.82%
1 Week
13.87%
1 Month
14.38%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 80% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1863 | 27.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7427 | 100.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0828 | -9.12*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0009 | 5.77*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0721 | 8.19*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9279 | 98.75*** |
Persistence:
0.888
Half-life:
6 days
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