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V-Lab

US Dollar to Russian Ruble MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026

1 Day

13.82%

decreased by 1.25%

1 Week

13.87%

decreased by 1.20%

1 Month

14.38%

decreased by 0.69%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Russian Ruble MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 80% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1863
27.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7427
100.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0828
-9.12***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0009
5.77***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0721
8.19***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9279
98.75***

Persistence:

0.888

Half-life:

6 days