V-Lab
US Dollar to Russian Ruble GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
29.72%
decreased by 2.02%
1 Week
29.72%
decreased by 2.02%
1 Month
29.73%
decreased by 2.01%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 539 trading days (~2.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.7328 | 13.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0558 | 145.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9987 | |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.1237 | 3,826.43*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
539 days
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