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US Dollar to Russian Ruble GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

24.70%

decreased by 1.86%

1 Week

24.72%

decreased by 1.84%

1 Month

24.79%

decreased by 1.77%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of US Dollar to Russian Ruble GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 535 trading days (~2.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.7413
13.08***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0561
145.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9987
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.1235
3,805.63***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

535 days