V-Lab
US Dollar to Russian Ruble GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
24.70%
decreased by 1.86%
1 Week
24.72%
decreased by 1.84%
1 Month
24.79%
decreased by 1.77%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 535 trading days (~2.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.7413 | 13.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0561 | 145.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9987 | |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.1235 | 3,805.63*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
535 days
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Currencies