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V-Lab

Romanian Leu MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

6.96%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

17.80%

increased by 10.56%

1 Month

469.07%

increased by 461.83%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:44 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/18/2024

to

10/18/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Romanian Leu MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.1290
5.36***
βGARCH0.1280
1.48
γleverage-0.0268
-0.93
λ₁tau intercept0.0227
3.98***
λ₂forecast adj.0.9983
20.78***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.244

Persistence

0d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1290
5.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1280
1.48
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0268
-0.93
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0227
3.98***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9983
20.78***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.244

Half-life:

0 days