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V-Lab

Romanian Leu MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

6.90%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Week

17.33%

increased by 9.70%

1 Month

433.52%

increased by 425.89%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Romanian Leu MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.1289
5.37***
βGARCH0.1292
1.49
γleverage-0.0269
-0.94
λ₁tau intercept0.0227
3.98***
λ₂forecast adj.0.9978
20.80***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.245

Persistence

0d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1289
5.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1292
1.49
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0269
-0.94
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0227
3.98***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9978
20.80***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.245

Half-life:

0 days