Romanian Leu MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
6.96%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
17.80%
increased by 10.56%
1 Month
469.07%
increased by 461.83%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:44 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.1290 | 5.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.1280 | 1.48 |
| γleverage | -0.0268 | -0.93 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0227 | 3.98*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.9983 | 20.78*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.244
Persistence0d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1290 | 5.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1280 | 1.48 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0268 | -0.93 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0227 | 3.98*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9983 | 20.78*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.244
Half-life:
0 days
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