Colombian Peso GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
177.76%
decreased by 1.89%
1 Week
177.68%
decreased by 1.97%
1 Month
177.39%
decreased by 2.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 20, 1992 to Jul 17, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 94.1181 | 10.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0431 | 145.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9983 | 7,030.48*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0030 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
414 days
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