Colombian Peso GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
10.28%
1 Week
10.32%
1 Month
10.48%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 08:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 20, 1992 to Oct 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 357 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.3618 | 2.44** |
| αscore | 0.0850 | 35.92*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9981 | 1,361.61*** |
| νDF | 2.9696 | 65.02*** |
0.998
Persistence357d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.3618 | 2.44** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0850 | 35.92*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9981 | 1,361.61*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.9696 | 65.02*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
357 days
Other Colombian Peso Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Currencies