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Colombian Peso GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

10.28%

increased by 0.68%

1 Week

10.32%

increased by 0.72%

1 Month

10.48%

increased by 0.88%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 08:05 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Colombian Peso GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 20, 1992 to Oct 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 357 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~357 daysv = 2.97 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.3618
2.44**
αscore0.0850
35.92***
βpersistence0.9981
1,361.61***
νDF2.9696
65.02***

0.998

Persistence

357d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.3618
2.44**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0850
35.92***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9981
1,361.61***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.9696
65.02***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

357 days