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V-Lab

Cardano to US Dollar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

54.32%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

58.99%

increased by 4.60%

1 Month

63.81%

increased by 9.42%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 06:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Cardano to US Dollar MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 1, 2022 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 49% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2420
14.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5440
15.94***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0796
-3.22***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.4860
0.98
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1971
2.22**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7983
8.04***

Persistence:

0.746

Half-life:

2 days