V-Lab
Cardano to US Dollar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
44.40%
1 Week
50.72%
1 Month
57.28%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 06:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2022 to Aug 15, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 47% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2326 | 14.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5497 | 16.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0748 | -3.11*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.4874 | 0.95 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2019 | 2.17** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7930 | 7.59*** |
Persistence:
0.745
Half-life:
2 days
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