V-Lab
Cardano to US Dollar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
54.32%
1 Week
58.99%
1 Month
63.81%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 06:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2022 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 49% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2420 | 14.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5440 | 15.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0796 | -3.22*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.4860 | 0.98 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1971 | 2.22** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7983 | 8.04*** |
Persistence:
0.746
Half-life:
2 days
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