US Dollar to Kuwaiti Dinar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
3.26%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
3.27%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
3.31%
decreased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 02:53 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 126 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~126 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0004 | 3.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.0744 | 2.47** |
| βGARCH | 0.9088 | 65.01*** |
| γleverage | 0.0226 | 0.47 |
0.995
Persistence126d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0004 | 3.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0744 | 2.47** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9088 | 65.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0226 | 0.47 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
126 days
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