V-Lab
US Dollar to Kuwaiti Dinar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
2.09%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
2.12%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
2.23%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 122 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~122 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0004 | 3.06*** |
| αARCH | 0.0744 | 2.48** |
| βGARCH | 0.9088 | 64.91*** |
| γleverage | 0.0221 | 0.46 |
0.994
Persistence122d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0004 | 3.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0744 | 2.48** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9088 | 64.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0221 | 0.46 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
122 days
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