V-Lab
US Dollar to Kuwaiti Dinar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
2.16%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
2.19%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
2.30%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 121 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~121 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0004 | 3.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.0747 | 2.49** |
| βGARCH | 0.9083 | 64.36*** |
| γleverage | 0.0226 | 0.47 |
0.994
Persistence121d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0004 | 3.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0747 | 2.49** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9083 | 64.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0226 | 0.47 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
121 days
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