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V-Lab

US Dollar to Euro EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

4.49%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

4.53%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

4.71%

increased by 0.17%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Euro EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 203 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~203 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0008
0.43
αARCH0.0591
7.69***
βGARCH0.9966
834.66***
γleverage0.0092
1.33

0.997

Persistence

203d

Half-life
σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0008
0.43
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0591
7.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9966
834.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0092
1.33

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

203 days