US Dollar to Euro AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
4.51%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
4.53%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
4.61%
increased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 290 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~290 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0005 | 2.11** |
| αARCH | 0.0232 | 7.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9744 | 284.92*** |
| γleverage | -0.0566 | -1.23 |
0.998
Persistence290d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0005 | 2.11** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0232 | 7.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9744 | 284.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0566 | -1.23 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
290 days
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