V-Lab
US Dollar to Chilean Peso Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
10.34%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
10.39%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
10.53%
decreased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:53 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9764 | 2.66*** |
| αARCH | 0.0721 | 7.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8802 | 56.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0079 | 0.15 |
| γ2 | 0.0459 | 0.63 |
| γ3 | -0.1307 | -3.55*** |
| γ4 | 0.1421 | 4.81*** |
| γ5 | -0.1280 | -3.98*** |
| γ6 | 0.1145 | 4.21*** |
| γ7 | -0.0553 | -3.28*** |
| γ8 | -0.0188 | -1.37 |
| γ9 | 0.0299 | 3.03*** |
0.952
Persistence14d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9764 | 2.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0721 | 7.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8802 | 56.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0079 | 0.15 |
| γ2 | 0.0459 | 0.63 |
| γ3 | -0.1307 | -3.55*** |
| γ4 | 0.1421 | 4.81*** |
| γ5 | -0.1280 | -3.98*** |
| γ6 | 0.1145 | 4.21*** |
| γ7 | -0.0553 | -3.28*** |
| γ8 | -0.0188 | -1.37 |
| γ9 | 0.0299 | 3.03*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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