V-Lab
US Dollar to Chilean Peso Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
11.16%
increased by 1.92%
1 Week
11.14%
increased by 1.90%
1 Month
11.09%
increased by 1.85%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9657 | 2.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.0723 | 7.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8803 | 56.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0056 | 0.11 |
| γ2 | 0.0493 | 0.67 |
| γ3 | -0.1322 | -3.56*** |
| γ4 | 0.1425 | 4.77*** |
| γ5 | -0.1276 | -3.91*** |
| γ6 | 0.1133 | 4.14*** |
| γ7 | -0.0539 | -3.19*** |
| γ8 | -0.0196 | -1.41 |
| γ9 | 0.0300 | 3.03*** |
0.953
Persistence14d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9657 | 2.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0723 | 7.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8803 | 56.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0056 | 0.11 |
| γ2 | 0.0493 | 0.67 |
| γ3 | -0.1322 | -3.56*** |
| γ4 | 0.1425 | 4.77*** |
| γ5 | -0.1276 | -3.91*** |
| γ6 | 0.1133 | 4.14*** |
| γ7 | -0.0539 | -3.19*** |
| γ8 | -0.0196 | -1.41 |
| γ9 | 0.0300 | 3.03*** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
Other US Dollar to Chilean Peso Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Currencies