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V-Lab

US Dollar to Costa Rican Colon APARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

6.24%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Week

6.25%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Month

6.31%

decreased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 01:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of US Dollar to Costa Rican Colon APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 31, 1999 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 3351049 trading days (~13297.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0003
6.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0477
27.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9502
588.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0355
1.48
δ

power

Transformation power

2.1096
39.73***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

3351049 days