V-Lab
US Dollar to Costa Rican Colon APARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
6.24%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
6.25%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Month
6.31%
decreased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 01:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1999 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 3351049 trading days (~13297.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 6.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0477 | 27.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9502 | 588.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0355 | 1.48 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.1096 | 39.73*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
3351049 days
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