US Dollar to Costa Rican Colon MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
5.18%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
5.50%
increased by 0.25%
1 Month
6.36%
increased by 1.11%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 7, 1994 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 41 | |
| αARCH | 0.0919 | 2.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8129 | 22.26*** |
| γleverage | 0.0302 | 0.74 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0007 | 1.50 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0170 | 3.28*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9804 | 173.09*** |
0.920
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0919 | 2.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8129 | 22.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0302 | 0.74 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0007 | 1.50 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0170 | 3.28*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9804 | 173.09*** |
Persistence:
0.920
Half-life:
8 days
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