V-Lab
US Dollar to Costa Rican Colon Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
6.01%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
6.10%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
6.42%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 7, 1994 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2603 | 3.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.1044 | 5.83*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8650 | 34.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.1183 | 2.24** |
| γ2 | -0.2829 | -3.37*** |
| γ3 | 0.3584 | 7.70*** |
| γ4 | -0.3610 | -11.32*** |
| γ5 | 0.2560 | 6.18*** |
| γ6 | -0.0873 | -2.32** |
| γ7 | -0.0182 | -0.63 |
| γ8 | 0.0037 | 0.09 |
0.969
Persistence22d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2603 | 3.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1044 | 5.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8650 | 34.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.1183 | 2.24** |
| γ2 | -0.2829 | -3.37*** |
| γ3 | 0.3584 | 7.70*** |
| γ4 | -0.3610 | -11.32*** |
| γ5 | 0.2560 | 6.18*** |
| γ6 | -0.0873 | -2.32** |
| γ7 | -0.0182 | -0.63 |
| γ8 | 0.0037 | 0.09 |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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