V-Lab
US Dollar to Costa Rican Colon Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
7.29%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
7.37%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
7.61%
increased by 0.25%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:53 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 7, 1994 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2311 | 3.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.1043 | 5.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8654 | 35.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.1124 | 2.15** |
| γ2 | -0.2722 | -3.28*** |
| γ3 | 0.3492 | 7.55*** |
| γ4 | -0.3535 | -11.11*** |
| γ5 | 0.2510 | 6.05*** |
| γ6 | -0.0835 | -2.24** |
| γ7 | -0.0249 | -0.97 |
| γ8 | 0.0237 | 1.46 |
0.970
Persistence22d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2311 | 3.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1043 | 5.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8654 | 35.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.1124 | 2.15** |
| γ2 | -0.2722 | -3.28*** |
| γ3 | 0.3492 | 7.55*** |
| γ4 | -0.3535 | -11.11*** |
| γ5 | 0.2510 | 6.05*** |
| γ6 | -0.0835 | -2.24** |
| γ7 | -0.0249 | -0.97 |
| γ8 | 0.0237 | 1.46 |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
22 days
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