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US Dollar to Costa Rican Colon Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

7.29%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

7.37%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

7.61%

increased by 0.25%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:53 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Costa Rican Colon S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 7, 1994 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2311
3.78***
αARCH0.1043
5.90***
βGARCH0.8654
35.39***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.1124
2.15**
γ2-0.2722
-3.28***
γ30.3492
7.55***
γ4-0.3535
-11.11***
γ50.2510
6.05***
γ6-0.0835
-2.24**
γ7-0.0249
-0.97
γ80.0237
1.46

0.970

Persistence

22d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2311
3.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1043
5.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8654
35.39***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.1124
2.15**
γ2-0.2722
-3.28***
γ30.3492
7.55***
γ4-0.3535
-11.11***
γ50.2510
6.05***
γ6-0.0835
-2.24**
γ7-0.0249
-0.97
γ80.0237
1.46

Persistence:

0.970

Half-life:

22 days