V-Lab
US Dollar to Costa Rican Colon GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
4.68%
decreased by 2.54%
1 Week
7.78%
increased by 0.56%
1 Month
12.85%
increased by 5.63%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 7, 1994 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-lifev = 7.99 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4084 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.6874 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9385 | 0.01 |
| νDF | 7.9913 | 0.00 |
0.938
Persistence11d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4084 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6874 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9385 | 0.01 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.9913 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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