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US Dollar to Costa Rican Colon GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

8.34%

increased by 2.64%

1 Week

9.92%

increased by 4.22%

1 Month

13.23%

increased by 7.53%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 08:07 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Costa Rican Colon GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 7, 1994 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-lifev = 7.99 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.4141
0.00
αscore0.6858
0.00
βpersistence0.9358
0.00
νDF7.9921
0.00

0.936

Persistence

10d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.4141
0.00
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.6858
0.00
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9358
0.00
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.9921
0.00

Persistence:

0.936

Half-life:

10 days