US Dollar to Costa Rican Colon GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
8.34%
increased by 2.64%
1 Week
9.92%
increased by 4.22%
1 Month
13.23%
increased by 7.53%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 08:07 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 7, 1994 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-lifev = 7.99 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.4141 | 0.00 |
| αscore | 0.6858 | 0.00 |
| βpersistence | 0.9358 | 0.00 |
| νDF | 7.9921 | 0.00 |
0.936
Persistence10d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.4141 | 0.00 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.6858 | 0.00 |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9358 | 0.00 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.9921 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
10 days
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