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US Dollar to Costa Rican Colon GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

4.68%

decreased by 2.54%

1 Week

7.78%

increased by 0.56%

1 Month

12.85%

increased by 5.63%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Costa Rican Colon GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 7, 1994 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-lifev = 7.99 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4084
0.00
αARCH0.6874
0.00
βGARCH0.9385
0.01
νDF7.9913
0.00

0.938

Persistence

11d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4084
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.6874
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9385
0.01
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.9913
0.00

Persistence:

0.938

Half-life:

11 days