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US Dollar to Taiwanese Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

6.16%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

6.13%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Month

6.00%

decreased by 0.25%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Taiwanese Dollar GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 30, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 40-day half-lifev = 2.88 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.1158
1.17
αscore0.1027
14.31***
βpersistence0.9827
66.23***
νDF2.8804
10.30***

0.983

Persistence

40d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.1158
1.17
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1027
14.31***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9827
66.23***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.8804
10.30***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

40 days