US Dollar to Taiwanese Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
6.16%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
6.13%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
6.00%
decreased by 0.25%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 40-day half-lifev = 2.88 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.1158 | 1.17 |
| αscore | 0.1027 | 14.31*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9827 | 66.23*** |
| νDF | 2.8804 | 10.30*** |
0.983
Persistence40d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.1158 | 1.17 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1027 | 14.31*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9827 | 66.23*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.8804 | 10.30*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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