V-Lab
US Dollar to Taiwanese Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
28.03%
decreased by 2.12%
1 Week
28.09%
decreased by 2.06%
1 Month
28.33%
decreased by 1.82%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.01 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7.4595 | 12.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0550 | 161.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9985 | 8,390.45*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0090 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
451 days
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