V-Lab
US Dollar to Mexican Peso Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
5.52%
increased by 0.91%
1 Week
5.69%
increased by 1.08%
1 Month
6.16%
increased by 1.55%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2072 | 1.77* |
| αARCH | 0.1459 | 7.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8049 | 38.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0918 | -1.21 |
| γ2 | 0.0945 | 1.00 |
| γ3 | -0.0202 | -0.69 |
| γ4 | 0.0608 | 2.66*** |
| γ5 | -0.0859 | -4.16*** |
| γ6 | 0.0847 | 4.55*** |
| γ7 | -0.0821 | -4.06*** |
| γ8 | 0.0715 | 3.09*** |
| γ9 | -0.0877 | -2.67*** |
0.951
Persistence14d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2072 | 1.77* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1459 | 7.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8049 | 38.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0918 | -1.21 |
| γ2 | 0.0945 | 1.00 |
| γ3 | -0.0202 | -0.69 |
| γ4 | 0.0608 | 2.66*** |
| γ5 | -0.0859 | -4.16*** |
| γ6 | 0.0847 | 4.55*** |
| γ7 | -0.0821 | -4.06*** |
| γ8 | 0.0715 | 3.09*** |
| γ9 | -0.0877 | -2.67*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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