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US Dollar to Mexican Peso Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

6.57%

increased by 0.74%

1 Week

6.98%

increased by 1.15%

1 Month

8.06%

increased by 2.23%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Mexican Peso S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 30, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2174
1.76*
αARCH0.1452
7.88***
βGARCH0.8087
39.99***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0826
-1.06
γ20.0766
0.78
γ3-0.0023
-0.08
γ40.0422
1.80*
γ5-0.0674
-3.19***
γ60.0662
3.51***
γ7-0.0601
-2.99***
γ80.0345
1.73*
γ9-0.0065
-0.49

0.954

Persistence

15d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2174
1.76*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1452
7.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8087
39.99***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0826
-1.06
γ20.0766
0.78
γ3-0.0023
-0.08
γ40.0422
1.80*
γ5-0.0674
-3.19***
γ60.0662
3.51***
γ7-0.0601
-2.99***
γ80.0345
1.73*
γ9-0.0065
-0.49

Persistence:

0.954

Half-life:

15 days