V-Lab
US Dollar to Mexican Peso Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
10.86%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Week
10.82%
decreased by 1.01%
1 Month
10.70%
decreased by 1.13%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:54 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2203 | 1.77* |
| αARCH | 0.1474 | 7.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8064 | 39.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0809 | -1.04 |
| γ2 | 0.0739 | 0.75 |
| γ3 | -0.0009 | -0.03 |
| γ4 | 0.0419 | 1.80* |
| γ5 | -0.0679 | -3.24*** |
| γ6 | 0.0665 | 3.55*** |
| γ7 | -0.0602 | -3.02*** |
| γ8 | 0.0351 | 1.77* |
| γ9 | -0.0072 | -0.55 |
0.954
Persistence15d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2203 | 1.77* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1474 | 7.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8064 | 39.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0809 | -1.04 |
| γ2 | 0.0739 | 0.75 |
| γ3 | -0.0009 | -0.03 |
| γ4 | 0.0419 | 1.80* |
| γ5 | -0.0679 | -3.24*** |
| γ6 | 0.0665 | 3.55*** |
| γ7 | -0.0602 | -3.02*** |
| γ8 | 0.0351 | 1.77* |
| γ9 | -0.0072 | -0.55 |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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