V-Lab
US Dollar to Mexican Peso Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
6.57%
increased by 0.74%
1 Week
6.98%
increased by 1.15%
1 Month
8.06%
increased by 2.23%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2174 | 1.76* |
| αARCH | 0.1452 | 7.88*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8087 | 39.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0826 | -1.06 |
| γ2 | 0.0766 | 0.78 |
| γ3 | -0.0023 | -0.08 |
| γ4 | 0.0422 | 1.80* |
| γ5 | -0.0674 | -3.19*** |
| γ6 | 0.0662 | 3.51*** |
| γ7 | -0.0601 | -2.99*** |
| γ8 | 0.0345 | 1.73* |
| γ9 | -0.0065 | -0.49 |
0.954
Persistence15d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2174 | 1.76* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1452 | 7.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8087 | 39.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0826 | -1.06 |
| γ2 | 0.0766 | 0.78 |
| γ3 | -0.0023 | -0.08 |
| γ4 | 0.0422 | 1.80* |
| γ5 | -0.0674 | -3.19*** |
| γ6 | 0.0662 | 3.51*** |
| γ7 | -0.0601 | -2.99*** |
| γ8 | 0.0345 | 1.73* |
| γ9 | -0.0065 | -0.49 |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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