Oslo Stock Exchange All Share Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
15.12%
increased by 2.05%
1 Week
15.33%
increased by 2.26%
1 Month
15.81%
increased by 2.74%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to May 15, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0299 | 8.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8121 | 174.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1506 | 31.50*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0023 | 1.97** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0135 | 4.24*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9848 | 233.75*** |
Persistence:
0.917
Half-life:
8 days
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