V-Lab
Oslo Stock Exchange All Share Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
12.12%
increased by 0.36%
1 Week
12.43%
increased by 0.67%
1 Month
13.48%
increased by 1.72%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.98 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 40-day half-lifev = 6.98 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4702 | 2.22** |
| αARCH | 0.0869 | 8.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9827 | 120.17*** |
| νDF | 6.9753 | 1.70* |
0.983
Persistence40d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4702 | 2.22** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0869 | 8.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9827 | 120.17*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.9753 | 1.70* |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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