Oslo Stock Exchange All Share Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
13.55%
increased by 1.12%
1 Week
13.78%
increased by 1.35%
1 Month
14.58%
increased by 2.15%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 05:41 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 40-day half-lifev = 6.99 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.4686 | 2.23** |
| αscore | 0.0868 | 8.83*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9827 | 121.04*** |
| νDF | 6.9934 | 1.70* |
0.983
Persistence40d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.4686 | 2.23** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0868 | 8.83*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9827 | 121.04*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.9934 | 1.70* |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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