Oslo Stock Exchange All Share Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
11.63%
increased by 0.70%
1 Week
11.75%
increased by 0.82%
1 Month
12.10%
increased by 1.17%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 06:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8462 | 5.56*** |
| αARCH | 0.1127 | 9.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8313 | 47.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1618 | -2.73*** |
| γ2 | 0.2785 | 3.12*** |
| γ3 | -0.1621 | -3.02*** |
| γ4 | 0.0436 | 0.92 |
| γ5 | 0.0605 | 1.03 |
| γ6 | -0.1769 | -2.32** |
| γ7 | 0.1876 | 2.92*** |
| γ8 | -0.0511 | -1.32 |
| γ9 | -0.0568 | -1.35 |
| γ10 | 0.0336 | 0.58 |
0.944
Persistence12d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8462 | 5.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1127 | 9.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8313 | 47.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1618 | -2.73*** |
| γ2 | 0.2785 | 3.12*** |
| γ3 | -0.1621 | -3.02*** |
| γ4 | 0.0436 | 0.92 |
| γ5 | 0.0605 | 1.03 |
| γ6 | -0.1769 | -2.32** |
| γ7 | 0.1876 | 2.92*** |
| γ8 | -0.0511 | -1.32 |
| γ9 | -0.0568 | -1.35 |
| γ10 | 0.0336 | 0.58 |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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