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V-Lab

Oslo Stock Exchange All Share Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

13.18%

increased by 1.30%

1 Week

13.70%

increased by 1.82%

1 Month

15.35%

increased by 3.47%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC

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graph of Oslo Stock Exchange All Share Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 188% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.33 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 188% more than positive returnsδ = 1.33 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0494
5.50***
αARCH0.1130
8.15***
βGARCH0.8674
58.64***
γleverage0.3781
6.49***
δpower1.3285
7.79***

0.964

Persistence

19d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0494
5.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1130
8.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8674
58.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3781
6.49***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.3285
7.79***

Persistence:

0.964

Half-life:

19 days