Oslo Stock Exchange All Share Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
14.89%
increased by 0.96%
1 Week
15.28%
increased by 1.35%
1 Month
16.53%
increased by 2.60%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 05:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to May 15, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 189% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.33 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0502 | 21.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1132 | 32.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8668 | 232.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3784 | 25.88*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3313 | 31.13*** |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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