V-Lab
Oslo Stock Exchange All Share Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
10.63%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
11.08%
increased by 0.36%
1 Month
12.26%
increased by 1.54%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9065 | 5.97*** |
| αARCH | 0.1129 | 9.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8302 | 46.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1356 | -2.19** |
| γ2 | 0.2374 | 2.54** |
| γ3 | -0.1363 | -2.46** |
| γ4 | 0.0270 | 0.56 |
| γ5 | 0.0667 | 1.13 |
| γ6 | -0.1743 | -2.26** |
| γ7 | 0.1790 | 2.77*** |
| γ8 | -0.0391 | -1.03 |
| γ9 | -0.0724 | -1.95* |
| γ10 | 0.0697 | 2.44** |
0.943
Persistence12d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9065 | 5.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1129 | 9.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8302 | 46.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1356 | -2.19** |
| γ2 | 0.2374 | 2.54** |
| γ3 | -0.1363 | -2.46** |
| γ4 | 0.0270 | 0.56 |
| γ5 | 0.0667 | 1.13 |
| γ6 | -0.1743 | -2.26** |
| γ7 | 0.1790 | 2.77*** |
| γ8 | -0.0391 | -1.03 |
| γ9 | -0.0724 | -1.95* |
| γ10 | 0.0697 | 2.44** |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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