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V-Lab

Oslo Stock Exchange All Share Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

14.13%

increased by 0.94%

1 Week

14.22%

increased by 1.03%

1 Month

14.46%

increased by 1.27%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Oslo Stock Exchange All Share Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to May 15, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8977
5.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1137
9.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8296
46.44***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.1395
-2.18**
γ20.2408
2.50**
γ3-0.1317
-2.30**
γ40.0159
0.32
γ50.0825
1.37
γ6-0.1879
-2.48**
γ70.1817
3.04***
γ8-0.0361
-0.97
γ9-0.0675
-1.69*
γ100.0595
1.99**

Persistence:

0.943

Half-life:

12 days