V-Lab
Oslo Stock Exchange All Share Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
10.48%
increased by 0.48%
1 Week
10.96%
increased by 0.96%
1 Month
12.19%
increased by 2.19%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 05:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9042 | 5.91*** |
| αARCH | 0.1130 | 9.42*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8309 | 46.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1363 | -2.19** |
| γ2 | 0.2376 | 2.53** |
| γ3 | -0.1353 | -2.43** |
| γ4 | 0.0265 | 0.55 |
| γ5 | 0.0666 | 1.12 |
| γ6 | -0.1738 | -2.25** |
| γ7 | 0.1782 | 2.75*** |
| γ8 | -0.0380 | -1.00 |
| γ9 | -0.0738 | -1.99** |
| γ10 | 0.0707 | 2.49** |
0.944
Persistence12d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9042 | 5.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1130 | 9.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8309 | 46.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1363 | -2.19** |
| γ2 | 0.2376 | 2.53** |
| γ3 | -0.1353 | -2.43** |
| γ4 | 0.0265 | 0.55 |
| γ5 | 0.0666 | 1.12 |
| γ6 | -0.1738 | -2.25** |
| γ7 | 0.1782 | 2.75*** |
| γ8 | -0.0380 | -1.00 |
| γ9 | -0.0738 | -1.99** |
| γ10 | 0.0707 | 2.49** |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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