V-Lab
Oslo Stock Exchange All Share Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
14.13%
increased by 0.94%
1 Week
14.22%
increased by 1.03%
1 Month
14.46%
increased by 1.27%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to May 15, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8977 | 5.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1137 | 9.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8296 | 46.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1395 | -2.18** |
| γ2 | 0.2408 | 2.50** |
| γ3 | -0.1317 | -2.30** |
| γ4 | 0.0159 | 0.32 |
| γ5 | 0.0825 | 1.37 |
| γ6 | -0.1879 | -2.48** |
| γ7 | 0.1817 | 3.04*** |
| γ8 | -0.0361 | -0.97 |
| γ9 | -0.0675 | -1.69* |
| γ10 | 0.0595 | 1.99** |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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