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V-Lab

Oslo Stock Exchange All Share Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

15.13%

increased by 1.09%

1 Week

15.03%

increased by 0.99%

1 Month

14.75%

increased by 0.71%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 06:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/06/2024

to

11/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Oslo Stock Exchange All Share Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9109
5.95***
αARCH0.1128
9.43***
βGARCH0.8312
47.13***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.1338
-2.18**
γ20.2349
2.54**
γ3-0.1369
-2.50**
γ40.0317
0.67
γ50.0588
1.00
γ6-0.1669
-2.14**
γ70.1768
2.64***
γ8-0.0406
-1.04
γ9-0.0733
-2.05**
γ100.0729
2.63***

0.944

Persistence

12d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9109
5.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1128
9.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8312
47.13***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.1338
-2.18**
γ20.2349
2.54**
γ3-0.1369
-2.50**
γ40.0317
0.67
γ50.0588
1.00
γ6-0.1669
-2.14**
γ70.1768
2.64***
γ8-0.0406
-1.04
γ9-0.0733
-2.05**
γ100.0729
2.63***

Persistence:

0.944

Half-life:

12 days