Osisko Gold Group Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
51.61%
1 Week
53.06%
1 Month
56.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2022 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.1495 | 2.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5430 | 1.87* |
| γleverage | -0.1495 | -2.89*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 2.2323 | 1.33 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1121 | 1.81* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.7424 | 4.63*** |
0.618
Persistence1d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1495 | 2.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5430 | 1.87* |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1495 | -2.89*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.2323 | 1.33 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1121 | 1.81* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7424 | 4.63*** |
Persistence:
0.618
Half-life:
1 days
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