V-Lab
Osisko Gold Group Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
46.98%
1 Week
44.08%
1 Month
37.16%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2022 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0861 | 1.87* |
| αARCH | 0.1773 | 6.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7872 | 22.82*** |
| γleverage | -0.1139 | -1.82* |
| δpower | 0.5000 | 1.14 |
0.933
Persistence10d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0861 | 1.87* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1773 | 6.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7872 | 22.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1139 | -1.82* |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 1.14 |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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