V-Lab
Osisko Gold Group Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
62.61%
1 Week
57.32%
1 Month
45.18%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2022 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 12% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0854 | 7.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1797 | 24.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7857 | 90.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1119 | -7.16*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 4.56*** |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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