V-Lab
Contextlogic Holdings Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
47.68%
1 Week
45.66%
1 Month
40.39%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:12 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2020 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 17% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.79 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1037 | 1.99** |
| αARCH | 0.2465 | 8.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7423 | 23.14*** |
| γleverage | 0.0973 | 2.12** |
| δpower | 0.7888 | 1.98** |
0.938
Persistence11d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1037 | 1.99** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2465 | 8.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7423 | 23.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0973 | 2.12** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.7888 | 1.98** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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