Contextlogic Holdings Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
28.94%
decreased by 4.15%
1 Week
29.13%
decreased by 3.96%
1 Month
29.65%
decreased by 3.44%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 09:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 16% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.76 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1027 | 7.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2456 | 32.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7422 | 89.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0967 | 8.09*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.7634 | 7.59*** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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