V-Lab
Contextlogic Holdings Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
38.81%
1 Week
40.38%
1 Month
46.54%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2020 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0397 | 2.49** |
| αARCH | 0.0840 | 3.76*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9160 | 50.02*** |
| γleverage | 0.2095 | 0.90 |
| δpower | 0.5000 | 2.00** |
0.985
Persistence45d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0397 | 2.49** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0840 | 3.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9160 | 50.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2095 | 0.90 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 2.00** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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