Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Contextlogic Holdings Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

38.81%

decreased by 2.64%

1 Week

40.38%

decreased by 1.07%

1 Month

46.54%

increased by 5.09%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Contextlogic Holdings Inc APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 16, 2020 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 45-day half-lifeδ = 0.50 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0397
2.49**
αARCH0.0840
3.76***
βGARCH0.9160
50.02***
γleverage0.2095
0.90
δpower0.5000
2.00**

0.985

Persistence

45d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0397
2.49**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0840
3.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9160
50.02***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2095
0.90
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
2.00**

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

45 days