V-Lab
Chevron Corp APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
27.15%
increased by 0.37%
1 Week
27.11%
increased by 0.33%
1 Month
26.98%
increased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 178% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.47 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0370 | 21.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0710 | 33.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9191 | 434.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3333 | 19.36*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4749 | 31.15*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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