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V-Lab

Chevron Corp APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

27.15%

increased by 0.37%

1 Week

27.11%

increased by 0.33%

1 Month

26.98%

increased by 0.20%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chevron Corp APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 178% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.47 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0370
21.28***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0710
33.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9191
434.58***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3333
19.36***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4749
31.15***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

39 days