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Ford Motor Co APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

30.68%

decreased by 0.67%

1 Week

31.14%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Month

32.84%

increased by 1.49%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ford Motor Co APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days. The volatility power δ = 0.83 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 42-day half-lifeδ = 0.83 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0393
3.79***
αARCH0.0799
8.22***
βGARCH0.9201
86.17***
γleverage0.1231
1.44
δpower0.8268
4.71***

0.984

Persistence

42d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0393
3.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0799
8.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9201
86.17***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1231
1.44
δ

power

Transformation power

0.8268
4.71***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

42 days