Ford Motor Co APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
30.68%
1 Week
31.14%
1 Month
32.84%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days. The volatility power δ = 0.83 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0393 | 3.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.0799 | 8.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9201 | 86.17*** |
| γleverage | 0.1231 | 1.44 |
| δpower | 0.8268 | 4.71*** |
0.984
Persistence42d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0393 | 3.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0799 | 8.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9201 | 86.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1231 | 1.44 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8268 | 4.71*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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