Home Depot Inc/The APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
27.07%
1 Week
27.29%
1 Month
28.10%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 12, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 259% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.09 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0321 | 5.63*** |
| αARCH | 0.0725 | 7.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9275 | 104.38*** |
| γleverage | 0.5280 | 6.18*** |
| δpower | 1.0872 | 8.38*** |
0.987
Persistence51d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0321 | 5.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0725 | 7.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9275 | 104.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5280 | 6.18*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0872 | 8.38*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
51 days
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