V-Lab
Niki BioSolutions Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
114.41%
decreased by 0.76%
1 Week
130.10%
increased by 14.93%
1 Month
167.57%
increased by 52.40%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2018 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3720 | 6.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2275 | 10.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7098 | 43.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0444 | -0.46 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 6.12*** |
Persistence:
0.897
Half-life:
6 days
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