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Niki BioSolutions Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

158.89%

increased by 37.72%

1 Week

166.46%

increased by 45.29%

1 Month

182.86%

increased by 61.69%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Niki BioSolutions Inc APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 18, 2018 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifeδ = 0.50 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.3859
1.54
αARCH0.2283
2.70***
βGARCH0.7033
10.72***
γleverage-0.0549
-0.14
δpower0.5000
1.54

0.891

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3859
1.54
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2283
2.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7033
10.72***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0549
-0.14
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
1.54

Persistence:

0.891

Half-life:

6 days