V-Lab
Niki BioSolutions Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
144.41%
increased by 26.50%
1 Week
146.00%
increased by 28.09%
1 Month
151.62%
increased by 33.71%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2018 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 45-day half-lifev = 2.49 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 143.7802 | 0.87 |
| αARCH | 0.1371 | 16.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9847 | 60.26*** |
| νDF | 2.4904 | 21.12*** |
0.985
Persistence45d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 143.7802 | 0.87 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1371 | 16.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9847 | 60.26*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.4904 | 21.12*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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